The reasons that I think the culture will change fall into two broad categories. The first category is that the community that is actually doing the work wants change. The vast majority of the Haskellers who I spend serious time interacting with (specifically, online on various fora like this one, and on repo issues and discussions) who are making contributions to the ecosystem are either explicitly agitating for Haskell to become more suitable for industrial development, or at least in favour of it. Although there’s a lot of inertia, and reorienting Haskell will be like turning a battleship, I don’t see any opposing force trying to turn Haskell another way. People resist changes to the status quo. But that’s fine: there are well-understood approaches for dealing with that.
The second category is my personal experience. Three years ago I had to literally join the Haskell.org committee to get a PR to the website merged. That’s how hard it was to make changes to the community. Since then I’ve been successful in resolving some systemic problems, most of which are people problems, not technical problems, for example automating deployments to the website (the “people” part was ensuring the review process was streamlined), working diplomatically behind the scenes to build consensus that ghcup should be the single recommended install method, and advocating for stability, partly via the Stability Working Group. When I joined the CLC I was probably the most vocal proponent of the importance of stability. Then a year ago three new members joined who are arguably more vocal proponents than me! People who want cultural change are entering positions of influence.
So, things can change, people want them to change, they’re willing to work towards changing them, and I’ve already managed to changed a few things and learned how to do it. That’s why I believe the culture will change.
Granted, I don’t have as clear a view into all elements of the ecosystem as you. I don’t know everything you know about the systemic issues affecting getting from GHC/HLS/Cabal source code into deployed software that works well for users, so maybe I’ve overlooked something, but at this point I’m very optimistic.