This sounds reasonable. Currently:
Current branch, prior branch, prior prior branch.
Proposed:
Current branch, prior branch, some earlier branch.
And periodically, each when the “current branch” shifts upwards by one and becomes the prior branch, we evaluate if the now prior prior branch should become the new LTS branch, or just fall out of maintenance and we preserve the existing LTS branch.
So, maintenance-wise, the only difference from now is that if the LTS branch lasts longer, patches will typically become harder to backport. But that seems unavoidable for longer-lived branches, no matter how structured. And who knows how much older that branch will get – maybe only a year more, maybe two.
The one other thing I’d note is that earlier it was proposed that LTS branches also get performance improvements. I think this is probably mainly off the table – performance work in my experience is often pervasive, involving many small changes, and only makes a noticeable difference in combination with other performance work – the hardest stuff to backport. (As opposed to bugfixes which ideally are localized and individually impactful). I would think that typically such stuff should not be backported – only bug fixes.